| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Mississippi State | 17-34 | 1251.0 | +15.0 | 1266.0 | 6.8% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Jackson State | 38-20 | 1266.0 | +9.2 | 1275.2 | 83.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | App State | 38-22 | 1275.2 | +84.4 | 1359.6 | 22.4% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Louisiana Tech | 20-30 | 1359.6 | +3.5 | 1363.1 | 27.9% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Jacksonville State | 42-25 | 1363.1 | +56.8 | 1419.9 | 21.7% |
| 8 | Oct 9 2025 | W | Georgia Southern | 38-35 | 1416.2 | +3.4 | 1419.6 | 45.3% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Louisiana | 22-10 | 1419.6 | +35.7 | 1455.3 | 44.6% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | UL Monroe | 49-21 | 1455.3 | +27.4 | 1482.7 | 72.9% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Arkansas State | 27-21 | 1485.1 | +8.6 | 1493.7 | 53.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Texas State | 14-41 | 1493.7 | -57.5 | 1436.2 | 43.8% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | South Alabama | 35-42 | 1436.2 | -12.5 | 1423.7 | 47.9% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Troy | 18-28 | 1423.7 | -16.1 | 1407.6 | 42.4% |
| 19 | Dec 23 2025 | L | Western Kentucky | 16-27 | 1402.2 | -12.7 | 1389.5 | 36.9% |